Yoshihide Suga
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
An increase in coronavirus cases in Japan has dealt a blow to the once-strong public support of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, raising the risk of him being replaced by the ruling party ahead of an election due in October.
Suga enjoyed one of the highest ratings ever for a new prime minister in September, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party appointed him leader. But with polls dropping as much as coronavirus cases are on the rise, the question arises whether he could join the long list of Japanese prime ministers forced to leave after short stints.
“It is likely they will try to vote for a more popular leader in the election of party leaders in September,” said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo, adding that “many LDP lawmakers” worried about their prospects. under the Suga flag. “The party leader is the face of the elections in the lower house.”
Support for Suga’s cabinet fell 7 percentage points from the previous month to 33% in a poll published by the Mainichi newspaper Saturday, compared with 57% of respondents who said they did not support the cabinet. New polls from Yomiuri and TV Asahi also showed a decline.
Suga will deliver a policy speech after the opening of the new parliamentary session on Monday at 2pm, when he will draft plans to add sanctions to a virus control law. The session offers the prime minister an opportunity to try to regain support for his government before making a crucial decision on whether or not to host the Tokyo Olympics, an event that will kick off in July and which he has said will be he is determined to hold on to it despite growing opposition. .
Suga, 72, rose to power, promising to maintain the ultra-easy monetary stance and other policies that helped make his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. At the same time, the farmer’s son showed more attention than his old boss for pocketbook issues such as mobile phone charging. He explained a dual strategy to support the economy while curbing the virus.
The continuity promise propelled the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to one the all-time high in dollar terms in January, even as the economy faltered from its worst downturn on record. But public opinion soon began to sour after Suga blocked a group of scientists critical of Abe’s policies from an academic advisory body and a campaign finance investigation confused several top employees of the former prime minister.
At the same time, the government has been increasingly criticized for maintaining its ‘Go-To’ travel campaign to boost domestic spending, despite concerns that it was helping to spread the virus. Suga resisted growing calls from regional leaders to declare a state of emergency – and renewed a debate that caused Abe’s popularity to decline before resigning due to the recurrence of a chronic illness.
Suga finally declared an emergency for the Tokyo region on Jan. 7 following several record-breaking contamination announcements, a move that was overdue according to about 80% of respondents to a survey by public broadcaster NHK. Last week, he added other areas, including the Osaka region, limiting some of the land that accounts for more than half of the country’s economic output.
The expansion also added to the likelihood that the world’s third-largest economy would decline again this quarter. Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Thursday that the current area could be further expanded depending on infections.
Nishiki Market in Kyoto, January 14. The government has been increasingly criticized for maintaining its “Go-To” travel campaign despite concerns that it was spreading the virus.
Photographer: Kosuke Okahara / Bloomberg
“There was no crisis management strategy under the Abe government,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor at Nihon University in Tokyo. “He’s stuck with that line and paid too much attention to the economy and other factors.”
To make matters worse, Japan is not expected to start mass vaccinations until February. And media polls show a growing consensus that the Tokyo Olympics, which have been postponed for a year to July 2021 due to the pandemic, should either be postponed again or canceled altogether – something Suga has vowed not to allow.
The prime minister doesn’t have much time to turn things around. Japanese law requires a lower house election in October. Suga is serving the final year of Abe’s three-year term and will need the support of the LDP to stay on after September.
Suga’s party has had almost all but four of its power over the past 65 years, thanks in part to an often disorganized opposition. A The merger of the two largest opposition groups last year did not provide enough support to pose a serious threat, although the ruling coalition could face a reduced majority.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, one of two LDP opponents Suga defeated to secure the party leadership’s position, said on BS Asahi on Sunday that he planned to go for the job again this year. Other possible candidates to replace Suga as LDP leader include Nishimura, Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato and Administrative Reform Minister Taro Kono.
Still, such current cabinet members could also be blamed for the failure of the government, Iwai said. That could even lead the LDP to turn to an old stalwart: Abe.
“Since there is no one else, people can start talking about getting Abe back,” Iwai said. “That’s a sad turn of events.”
– Assisted by Andrew Davis, Erica Yokoyama and Lily Nonomiya
(Updates with new polls in fourth paragraph.)