Short story: vaccines work. Data from Israel’s rollout of the Pfizer vaccine, conducted in a wide-ranging campaign, shows that this is also working quickly. The first shot alone significantly reduces transmission risk, with estimates ranging from 33% to 60%. It is exactly the impact one would hope to see from a vaccine in a pandemic, but has not been quantified so far.
This questions the currently slow rollout of vaccinations to the masses:
Initial data from the Israeli vaccination campaign shows that Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine reduces infections by about 50 percent 14 days after the first of two injections are administered, a top Health Ministry official said Tuesday, as the severe COVID-19 cases, daily infections and being totally active. cases all reach peaks one day.
Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of the Department of Health’s public health department, told Channel 12 News that the data was preliminary and based on the results of coronavirus tests among both those who received the vaccine and those who did not.
Other, somewhat contradicting data was released Tuesday evening by Israeli health organizations. Channel 13 News said that according to figures released by Clalit, Israel’s largest healthcare provider, the chances of a person being infected with the coronavirus dropped by 33% 14 days after they were vaccinated. Separate figures recorded by the Maccabi healthcare provider and broadcast by Channel 12 showed that 14 days after taking the first injection, the vaccine reduced the risk of infection by 60%.
As noted, Israel’s transmission speeds have not demonstrated the full impact of this phenomenon, but the news is nevertheless encouraging. It suggests that broad vaccination programs would significantly slow the rate of community transmission almost immediately, and that the second shot would almost wipe it out if it were spread wide enough. Israel has only reached 20% of its population with the first shot, which is much further than the US has reached, but Israel’s population is also a lot smaller and more concentrated.
The lesson here is to get as many people as possible vaccinated with their first injection. The CDC may have looked at Israeli data yesterday as they push through their policy change, but that seems to be more about the perverse incentives of the tougher rollout regime they first announced. That led to the destruction of doses to avoid draconian penalties for out-of-line vaccinations, an outcome that is not only irritating but completely counterproductive. Now New York is dismantling those perverse incentives, at least in terms of vaccinating seniors and those with serious comorbidities, but only after massive public reaction to the ludicrous results of their brutal enforcement.
This may still be too restrictive a plan. If we want to reduce transmission speeds to fully reopen our economies, we need to vaccinate entire populations quickly. Of course, that means solving delivery and distribution issues, but it might be better to transfer those doses to existing private sector distribution channels and let them go completely, first come, first served. Let Walgreens, CVS, Walmart, Target, and other pharmacies get it from the manufacturer in enough arms to seriously bend the curve down. That will also help protect the vulnerable by making COVID-19 less apparent in the population, perhaps just a week or two after a serious and wide rollout begins.
Let’s get it done. Fast.