MLB teams that have to take a big step

The Mets made the biggest impression of the Hot Stove season last Thursday, taking over shortstop Francisco Lindor and righthanded Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland. The landing of two players of that caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is remarkable in every context. But it was especially huge for the

The Mets made the biggest impression of the Hot Stove season last Thursday, taking over shortstop Francisco Lindor and righthanded Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland.

The landing of two players of that caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is remarkable in every context. But it was especially huge for the Mets, given their place in a competitive National League East starring the three-time defending champion Braves. According to FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski, his ZiPS system had the Mets seven games behind Atlanta in the projected trade leaderboard. Now the two teams are pretty much equal, with the Mets’ chances of hitting the postseason up about 31 percentage points, up to 72.4%.

In fact, ZiPS shows that at the time of the Lindor swap, the Mets had the most to gain from any team, in terms of playoff probability, by making an addition of five wins to their roster (or roughly the combined impact of Lindor and Carrasco). But there are many other clubs that would take a similar bump from such a move.

Using Szymborski’s calculations, here are five of the teams that could benefit the most from a splash of Mets-sized, and one way each could deliver such a feat. Note that these suggested moves aren’t necessarily at that five-win level – those are hard to find – but would still give a significant boost to any team’s hopes in October.

Angels
This is a time of opportunity in Anaheim. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are superstars in their prime, and the American League West may be just as ripe for the taking as it has been for a while. Houston and Oakland are both likely to lose several key players, while Seattle and Texas don’t seem ready to jump back to the top of the standings. Perry Minasian, New Angels general manager, has replaced Andrelton Simmons with José Iglesias at the short stop and has added Raisel Iglesias, but he has not yet reached the kind of player who can make a difference in the West.

A spectacular movement: Right-handed free agent sign Trevor Bauer. The start of the pitching was a painful spot for the Angels, and while Dylan Bundy turned out to be a great buy-low last year, the team’s rotation is still only 19th in FanGraphs’ expected WAR. With Shohei Ohtani far from certain at this point, paying the prize to bring in the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner – projected at around 4 WAR – would be the best way to help Trout return to the postseason.

Blue jays
They seem to be in the mix for quite a few off-season impact players, but haven’t landed any so far, with the re-hiring of leftist Robbie Ray their only notable move. However, it is more a matter of who and when than when. The Blue Jays jumped from 95 losses in 2019 to 32-28 in the shortened ’20 campaign, making the post-season behind a young core of position players and last year’s big acquisition Hyun Jin Ryu. The club still finished behind the Rays and Yankees in the division, but with Tampa Bay saying goodbye to Blake Snell and Charlie Morton and the Yankees having a quiet winter too, there’s an opening for Toronto here.

A spectacular movement: Free agent outfielder sign George Springer. While the Jays can go in a few different directions – and grabbing DJ LeMahieu from the Yanks would no doubt be satisfying – Springer is probably the best match. He would be a defensive upgrade in the center above Randal Grichuk and bring a winning history, not to mention his elite bat. Springer could help make the club not only a division contender, but also a championship contender.

Cardinals
Really, this could be one of the top four teams in NL Central. Aside from the Mets, the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers and Reds are each among the five teams that have the most to gain from a five-win jump, according to ZiPS. That’s because of how close those clubs are to each other. Still, no one has pushed this out of season to try and improve their roster. (In fact, the division’s most notable moves were deductions, starring Yu Darvish from Chicago). As for the Cardinals, they’ve managed to squeeze into the playoffs in consecutive seasons, but their roster is lacking in high-profile talent. About all St. Louis has done this winter is reject Kolten Wong’s club option and (so far) fail to re-sign the old faces of the franchise Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

A spectacular movement: Trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado. While St. Louis has been linked to the star of the Rockies in the past, this is likely a big step given the six years and $ 199 million remaining on Arenado’s contract and his opt-out after 2021. But maybe the Cards can get creative, given all the major contracts that will come off the club’s books after this season (Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Andrew Miller and Carlos Martínez). Assuming his 2020 offensive slump was the product of a strange, shortened season, Arenado would be a massive upgrade in third place from 35-year-old Carpenter, who has struggled for the past two years.

Nationals
While the Hot Stove has largely been simmering so far, the Nats have been relatively active, tackling a thin line-up by trading for first baseman Josh Bell and signing left fighter Kyle Schwarber. Washington has addressed two key areas of need and now has quite a bit more thump behind Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but frankly, the job shouldn’t be done. Lindor’s trade made that clear, with ZiPS now seeing the Nats as a clear third behind the Braves and Mets.

A spectacular movement: Free agent catcher sign JT Realmuto. The Nats’ questionable depth means that general manager Mike Rizzo could also make a meaningful addition at second or third base, or even the starting rotation, where there are many question marks behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin’s Big Three . . But Nats ‘catchers, led by Yan Gomes, are at the bottom of FanGraphs’ projections, while Realmuto has a strong case as the best all-round backstop in the game. If Washington is willing to make the necessary financial commitment, that would go a long way in challenging Atlanta and New York.

Twins
The Lindor trade helped Minnesota, whose post-season ZiPS probability was nearly 75%, while Cleveland dropped to a clear third in the AL Central. On the other hand, the Twins have seen the division’s other major contender, the White Sox, trade for Lance Lynn and now reach a deal with free agent Liam Hendriks, according to sources. The Twins have been relatively quiet, and if they want to keep up with Chicago and capture their third division in a row, some reinforcements are in order – even after the seemingly inevitable return of Nelson Cruz.

A spectacular movement: Trade for Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray. Both starting pitchers have come to the fore in trade talks, with the Reds sustaining further pay cuts, and both projecting among the top 20 pitchers in MLB (with Castillo a little above Gray). The rotation of the Twins is strong at the top (Kenta Maeda, José Berríos) but somewhat shaky below, especially given that Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill are free agents. While Minnesota could be content to gain depth behind the rotation, Castillo of Gray would have fifth starter options Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe replacing the best way to counter the White Sox. Such a move would cost the Twins potential wealth, but neither would break the bank.