While President-elect Joe Biden will immediately focus on the troubled domestic situation, with the Covid-19 pandemic and the US political divide, the Trump administration has also opted to send him a series as part of its latest act. to hand over. of new international diplomatic dilemmas. In some cases these are life or death situations.
These moves, announced by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, mean that Biden is beginning his presidential term with several key foreign relations that are in controversy, thanks to his predecessor’s policies.
“The Trump administration is setting out a series of conflicts that are changing Biden’s starting point on the world stage,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
However, since Washington established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979, it opposes having official diplomatic relations with Taipei in order to avoid a confrontation with the communist leaders on the mainland, where the island can still be seen – the home to about 24 million people – – as part of China.
Critics fear that this week’s move by the Trump administration will give Beijing leverage over the upcoming Biden administration, even though the bolstered US support for Taiwan against an increasingly assertive China is largely a bipartisan consensus in Washington.
“If the US decides to work with China on climate change, China could demand that the US reverse its stance on Taiwan,” Pantucci said.
And whether Chinese hawks in the US like it or not, Biden may need to work with China to tackle climate change, global terrorism and all sorts of other issues.
Analysts had long expected Biden to maintain an aggressive stance in China, but they believed he would work with international allies to build a coherent coalition, rather than upholding Trump’s maximum pressure approach.
“What Biden should do is work with European allies to have a coordinated strategy towards China, but to do that you need some time to build that up,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, program director. for the US and America at Chatham House. “You no longer have to stand in the way of immediate problems.”
Getting partners – especially those in Europe – to share a united position on China has already been a difficult task.
“European countries have a very different attitude towards China, with some – like the UK – being very concerned and others – like Italy and Germany – more focused on China as an export market,” said Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the British Foreign Affairs. Select commission.
While it’s tempting to suggest that Biden could simply reverse policy once he takes office, that ignores the lose-lose situation in which Trump left the president-elect.
As Pantucci points out, capitulation would “cost Biden political capital domestically,” where anti-China sentiment is quite strong across the political aisle. If Biden again restricts contacts with Taiwan, Beijing could also claim that the US had accepted its status as a province of China.
This “could have major repercussions for Taiwanese democracy itself, as Xi and his allies did not hesitate to assert their authority when allowed to do so,” added Pantucci. While it is “very unlikely that China will attack Taipei,” Pantucci warned that there “could be more interference” [by Beijing] in politics, meddle economically “if Trump’s policies are maintained.
Bullying the Houthis is ‘a fantasy’
The situation in Yemen is equally dire and, as a result of the Trump administration’s actions, potentially more deadly.
The war in Yemen has continued since 2014. Diplomatic ways to end the conflict between the Saudi-backed government and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far failed.
It has been described by UNICEF as the “greatest humanitarian crisis in the world, with more than 24 million people – about 80 percent of the population – in need of humanitarian assistance, including more than 12 million children.”
“The designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization will in no way help resolve this conflict, and even risk prolonging it,” said Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding.
“There are risks that the Houthi hardliners will feel empowered to turn more to Iran. They will not be willing to participate in diplomatic processes or backchannels to Saudi Arabia.”
The longer the crisis lasts, the worse it will get for those in need of humanitarian assistance, analysts said.
Terrorism will only make it more difficult for aid groups to deliver food and medical supplies to the country. It will also “make it difficult for aid agencies to have personnel on the ground, as the Houthis can control the two main entry points into Yemen,” Doyle said.
“By taking one side in a conflict, you can really harm the civilian population and that is very irresponsible,” Doyle added. “The idea that you can bully the Houthis to soften their point of view is a fantasy.”
Nail in the coffin for Obama’s Cuba policy
Pompeo’s repurposing of Cuba as a sponsor of state terror is likely to have the least material impact, but it represents a personal loss to Biden and a major political victory for Trumpism.
With this, Trump is hitting the last nail in the coffin of Barack Obama’s attempts to normalize relations with Cuba.
Stories have been and will be written of how Trump’s hardline against Cuba’s communist leaders played well in the Latino vote in Florida. This latest act could well leave a legacy for whoever carries the Trump torch in 2024.
“If the US goes to Cuba now and says it wants to get back to where things were at the end of the Obama administration, Cuba can rightly ask why it should bother if it is possible for someone like Trump to restart in 2024. could be elected, ”said Pantucci.
And a reset, while not at the top of his priority list, would have been something Biden would consider considering he was Obama’s vice president.
The legacy problem is something that Vinjamuri pays a lot of attention to.
“These are really the last days of the Trump administration and they really seem to be laying the groundwork for something they can build on,” she said, suggesting that Pompeo’s final steps could be an attempt to brush up on his hard-hitting credentials for a run on the 2024 Presidential election.
Biden will be sworn in on January 20. Trump will be gone – at least for now – but his impact on the world will be felt for years to come.
And it could take a long time for the new government to untangle the 11th-hour decisions of its predecessor.