Prince Mohammed bin Salman, right, welcomes Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, on Jan. 5.
Photographer: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Photographer: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
One day when Saudi Arabia shocked the oil market with an output cut it called a “ goodwill gesture, ” the actual ruler of the kingdom took center stage in a mirrored concert hall, poised to resolve another crisis.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was in charge of the break with Qatar for more than three years. But now there were only two weeks before a new American leader took office, and President-elect Joe Biden had pledged to treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah”. Coupled with threats from Iran and a weakening economy, the prince’s calculation was shifting: reconciliation looked better than conflict.
Gulf Arab states agree to re-establish Qatar ties in US-backed deal
So on Tuesday, as television cameras rolled in the northwestern Saudi city of Al Ula, Prince Mohammed hugged the ruler of Qatar and ended the split, introducing himself as a peacemaker. Hours later, Saudi Arabia announced it would cut oil production by a million barrels a day to support prices for fellow producers – a directive that came straight from the Crown Prince, according to the Secretary of Energy, and that affected the shares of U.S. energy companies. rise.
With those moves, Prince Mohammed underlined his public presence with a conciliatory tone – at least for now. Since the 35-year-old prince took power in 2015, the world’s largest crude oil exporter had engaged in a series of unusually risky ventures: a war in Yemen, which partially severed ties with Canada and waged a bitter oil price war with Russia. . , and flirt with a trade war with Turkey.
New Approach
A Gulf-based diplomat, who asked not to be named when discussing Saudi internal politics, described Prince Mohammed as an attempt to coax two levers of influence at once. With one of these, he is making the most of the profit he can get from Donald Trump’s Saudi-friendly administration. This has been done by drawing on the desire of Special Adviser Jared Kushner, who attended the summit, to profile himself as a peacemaker as well. Using another lever, he positions himself as a leader who cannot alienate or ignore Biden, especially by appearing constructive.
“This is an attempt to take on a leadership role, to gain some diplomatic advantage from the upcoming Biden government, and the realization that perhaps the last four years allowed too much foreign policy adventurism”, said Karen Young, a bee resident scholar American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC
Trump was close to Saudi Arabia, made his first trip abroad as president, waged a hardline against his nemesis Iran and protected Prince Mohammed from the fallout from the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul.
Costly conflicts
However, it’s not just Biden driving the new tone – the terrain Prince Mohammed is entering has shifted as well. His plan to diversify and de-oil the economy is facing major setbacks, and the kingdom’s reputation has taken a plunge after a series of scandals. The coronavirus pandemic has added to the urgency of challenges at home.
Back to Square One: ‘Saudi Arabia’s double crisis hits home
For much of last year, Prince Mohammed stepped back from the public sphere and squatted on the Red Sea coast in Neom, one of his signature futuristic mega projects. It was the finance minister, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, and King Salman – Prince Mohammed’s father – who spoke to the country and warned citizens of troubled times.
At Tuesday’s summit, King Salman was absent and Prince Mohammed was the star. The setting reflected the prince’s ambitions and emphasized his plan to make Al Ula a world tourist destination. After the meetings, he took Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad on a trip. They were driving a white Lexus with Prince Mohammed at the wheel.
The image would have been unthinkable a few years ago, when the Prince’s closest advisers regularly belittled Qatar. Saudi Arabia and its allies have accused the wealthy Gulf State of meddling in their internal affairs, supporting extremism and using its influential media outlets as propaganda weapons against neighbors, allegations Doha denies.
Donald Trump, left, with Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud on the sidelines of the second day of the G20 summit at the INTEX Osaka Exhibition Center in Osaka, Japan, in 2019.
Source: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Global influence
Regional dynamics played a key role in mending ties, including Saudi Arabia’s desire to focus on Iran, said Hesham Alghannam, a political scientist and senior research fellow at the Gulf Research Center. Biden has said he will try to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran that Trump has left, a range viewed with trepidation by Saudi Arabia that has also given it additional incentive to re-establish ties with Arab neighbors .
“Saudi wants to be the arbiter of the differences between Gulf states, rather than being part of these conflicts,” Alghannam said.
From the Archives: A QuickTake on the Origin of the Saudi-Qatar Rift
The output reduction was another demonstration of the kingdom’s regional and global influence. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, an older half-brother of the Crown Prince, said Saudi Arabiaa leading helping the oil world and others suffering from lower oil prices, including Iraq.
But even that move pointed to a change in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy under King Salman and Prince Mohammed. After decades of pride in putting oil above politics, the royal palace has become more interventionist and energetic machinations more politicized.
To this end, Prince Abdulaziz described the production cut as a “political, sovereign” step rather than a “technical” one. It will also be expensive. At current prices, it costs the kingdom $ 3 billion a month in lost oil revenue, according to Bloomberg News calculations, although the actual figure could end smaller.
But the global impact was immediate. The price of crude oil rose to a 10-month high above $ 50 a barrel. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is allowing Russia to ramp up production, a first and less than a year after their price war. It’s another sign that the kingdom isn’t looking for confrontation for now.
– With the help of Vivian Nereim, Farah Elbahrawy and Abeer Abu Omar