President-elect Joe Biden hopes to revive the Iran nuclear deal after taking office, but the task is only getting more daunting.
Driving the news: Iran announced today that it would enrich uranium up to 20% – very close to weapon quality levels – in its underground Fordow facility.
- Hours later, Tehran announced that it had seized a South Korean-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly for pollution. That’s a new reminder to the world of Iran’s ability to disrupt a crucial shipping corridor.
- Meanwhile, the US and its regional partners continue to fear possible Iranian reprisals a year after the US attack that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, as well as the more recent assassination of Iranian chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The big picture
According to Biden, Iran’s nuclear acceleration and simmering regional tensions are a result of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach following his withdrawal from the 2015 deal. Biden is ready to lift nuclear sanctions and rejoin the US. engage the deal – if Iran back into compliance.
- Upcoming national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that after returning to the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Biden will conduct follow-up negotiations to curtail Iran’s regional behavior.
- Iran’s ballistic missile program, Sullivan said, “must be on the table” in those negotiations.
The framework seems to be there, As President Hassan Rouhani says, Iran is also ready to be compliant again if the US lifts its sanctions. But today’s announcement of the enrichment underscores how thorny the process will be.
- If Iran enriches significant amounts of uranium to 20%, the nuclear breakthrough time will be “very, very short,” said Ernest Moniz, who was instrumental in negotiating the 2015 deal as Barack Obama’s energy secretary. “The key question is how much they earn.”
Situation
The move to 20% enrichment is part of a law – passed against Rouhani’s objections – that also calls for UN nuclear inspections to be suspended if sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors are not lifted in February.
- That would be a “game-changer” beyond any steps Iran has taken so far, Moniz said, because “it would then become increasingly difficult to claim that we know they are not participating in a weapons program.”
Iran has also demanded compensation for the damage from US sanctions, although Rouhani has shown some flexibility on that point.
- More challenging may be Foreign Secretary Mohammad Javad Zarif’s insistence on Iran’s unwillingness to negotiate issues outside of its nuclear program – at least not until the US lifts sanctions.
What’s next: Iran also has presidential elections ahead in June, with a tough government expected to replace Rouhani’s place.
- Returning to the deal after being burned by Trump is an extremely contentious proposal.
- “It’s probably the kind of thing that’s easier for an outgoing government to do, as the JCPOA isn’t the most popular item in some political circles in Iran,” said Rob Malley, a former Obama Middle East adviser and now chairman of the International Crisis. Group. The direction of travel will ultimately be determined by Iran’s supreme leader, Malley added.
Where things are: If Biden wants a deal with Rouhani, he only has five months to get it.
The opposition
Biden will face fierce opposition to a swift return to the deal from Israel and the Gulf states, as well as Republicans and some Democrats in Congress.
What they say: The opponents claim that Biden has been given a strong hand by Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign and that he must play it carefully.
“It is really an economic war that the US is waging against Iran, “said Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to the US (2014–2019) and permanent representative to the UN Security Council (2009–2014).” It is true that the US is leveraging . “
- There are already a few public comments from Israeli and Gulf officials discouraging Biden from returning to the 2015 deal and only thereafter try to negotiate a deal that addresses regional issues.
- Sullivan’s argument is that the US will be better positioned to negotiate these issues once Iran’s nuclear program is “back in a box.”
One of the most controversial points will likely be sequencing.
- Iran says it will return to compliance once the US lifts the sanctions, while Biden says he will lift the sanctions once Iran is back in compliance.
- That requires Iran to take a number of technical steps, including shipping enriched uranium from the country, likely to Russia.
- The process could be completed in about four months, Moniz says – probably faster if Iran “comes out completely,” but slower in a staged process that involves Iranian steps accompanied by US sanctions.
The other side: The Trump administration has tried to block Biden’s path back to the JCPOA, including by imposing sanctions on Iran for non-nuclear issues.
- Biden could lift those sanctions without Congressional approval – and the Iranians may demand it – but Iranian hawks hope the issue will once again become a domestic political minefield.
What to watch
Iran’s recent nuclear acceleration, and his threat to deport inspectors are likely to be Biden’s top concerns in the near term – and these acts are clearly intended to force him to act quickly.
Yes but: “Some steps Iran could take could backfire,” Malley added. “I think there will come a point where more pressure could mean that the Biden administration will also change course.”
Flashback: The JCPOA’s European signatories – France, Germany and the UK – have worked desperately to hold the deal until the next US election in the two years following Trump’s withdrawal.
- Now the candidate who has made rescuing the Iran deal a top priority is two weeks away from the Oval Office.
- But even he acknowledges that the way forward is uncertain. Tony Blinken, Biden’s choice of Secretary of State, has said the US will cooperate with Europe on Iran – or Iran will eventually agree to return to compliance.
European leaders and diplomats will try to facilitate dialogue between the US and Iran, Araud says. But he recalls years of fruitless European attempts to negotiate with Iran before the Obama administration brought up the issue.
It comes down to: “We knew from the start that the real problem was between the United States and Iran,” he says, “and that’s even more so now.”