Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf states are expected to sign an agreement on Tuesday to end a diplomatic crisis in the Gulf after 3.5 years.
The big picture: A Saudi-led coalition cut ties with Qatar in 2017 and closed their airspace and sea routes to Qatari aircraft and ships, citing Qatar’s alleged support for terror groups and relations with Iran. In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been under pressure from the Trump administration to end the dispute.
- The US maintains close ties with both Qatar and its rivals, but the Trump administration’s previous attempts to reconcile the parties have been unsuccessful.
- Both Gulf states see the signing of the agreement as a gesture to the Trump administration and as part of their effort to “clean the table” in preparation for the upcoming Biden administration.
- Jared Kushner mediated between the parties and traveled to Saudi Arabia to participate in the signing at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit this week.
The last: Ahead of signing the deal, the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister announced that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would open their land, air and sea borders from Monday evening.
Driving the news: Kushner traveled to the GCC summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, with White House envoy Avi Berkowitz and adviser Brian Hook, who helped negotiate the deal.
- The summit marks the first time that the Emir of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani, will visit Saudi Arabia since the crisis erupted in 2017. The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Kuwait will also present.
- Leaders will sign an agreement that includes three confidence-building measures: Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain will lift Qatar’s air and naval blockade; Qatar will withdraw all lawsuits against its three Gulf neighbors; and all parties will stop their media campaigns against each other.
Behind the scenes: The deal was reached in principle during Kushner’s last visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar a few weeks ago, where he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Tamim. Kushner has close relationships with both leaders.
- US officials say that after meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince, Kushner traveled with Hook to Qatar’s capital, Doha, leaving close associates Berkowitz and Adam Boehler in Saudi Arabia. The two brokered talks between the Saudis and the Qataris over the phone in real time until a draft agreement was reached.
- In recent weeks, final talks have been held with the Saudis and the Qataris to ensure that both sides are committed to the agreements reached, the officials told me.
- The White House also lobbied the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt – all three of which have reservations about the deal, because they see Qatar in a negative light and do not believe the Qataris are sincere.
- The deal almost fell apart on Sunday when a last-minute miscommunication sparked new tensions between the Saudis and the Qataris, sources briefed on the matter said.
- Kushner and his team were due to leave Sunday afternoon, but have postponed their trip. A source told me that on Sunday, Kushner and his team were forced to negotiate with the Saudis and the Qataris until a solution was found. They left Washington on their way to Saudi Arabia early Monday morning.
What they say: A senior diplomat from one of the Gulf states told me the deal is a step in the right direction and includes some positive developments – but it does not mean the end of the Gulf gap.
- “Some issues have been resolved, but the root causes of the rift – poor personal relationships between the leaders and major policy differences over Iran, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood – are still there,” the diplomat told me.
It comes down to: The agreement, signed Tuesday, would be a last-minute achievement for Kushner and the Trump administration before President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20.