From the moment the fight was announced, Ryan Garcia vs. Luke Campbell gets down to one key point: whether Garcia is willing to act and prove he’s true as an elite boxer and not just a social media star.
But the interim WBC lightweight title on Saturday’s Dallas line will not be a gift wrapped gift for Garcia. For Campbell, who has lost in his two previous world title fights, against Vasiliy Lomachenko and Jorge Linares, it is one more chance to show that he can stand up and not stand in the spotlight from a big moment .
And there is no doubt about it: the first big boxing card of 2021 is a great moment. We’ve seen fights like this before – the young phenomenon versus a man with enough experience to challenge him and cause him trouble. And it could well be Garcia’s second main fight, but there’s every reason to believe he’s ready and to show that he has the skills to back it all up.
In his most recent fight, his first main event, it took 22-year-old Garcia less than two minutes (80 seconds to be exact) in February to score a prominent knockout against Francisco Fonseca.
In the boxing world, we talk about experience, how important it is to be a veteran and fight all those rounds. In some cases it is. But not this one. Garcia is younger. He is the biggest. ‘He’s stronger. It’s faster. It has exceptional timing.
We’ve seen Campbell and it seems pretty safe to say we know who and what he is as a fighter. It has faded into the spotlight. We saw it against Linares, when he fought hard in the middle rounds, but couldn’t finish strong and lost that split decision. We saw him fighting Lomachenko, delivering some good blows early on, but was unable to expand it during the fight.
You seem to lose focus and concentration somewhere along the way.
Stylistically, Campbell isn’t the type of fighter who should cause Garcia any trouble at all. Campbell is a technical boxer who does his best when digging for the body and is a bit more aggressive. But he doesn’t like it. He can’t take the pressure it takes to beat Garcia’s pace.
I think Garcia will face some tough challenges in the future, even though he has shown himself to be a great fighter and only getting better. I don’t think Campbell is the type to take advantage of the flaws that Garcia is currently displaying, but there are a few. Fight with your chin in the air. Garcia often closes his knees and stands up straight. It doesn’t take up pressure very well.
The reason I’m so sure of what Garcia can do comes from how I analyze combat. I’m looking at five criteria, and while it’s not an exact science, I think it’s a good way to outline how a fight will usually go.
No. 1: Which boxer is smarter? Who knows when to fight and when not to?
I have to go to Garcia about this. He knows when to box, when to fight, when to choke, when to tie. There it is smart. He is not unbeaten for nothing. Campbell can show some of these skills, especially when dropping to the body, but he doesn’t have a good pace.
No. 2: Who can make adjustments as the fight progresses?
It is true that we have not seen Garcia adapt because he catches the boys early. It has superior timing. Eliminate rivals. I’ve seen Campbell get knocked down against a smaller man in Lomachenko. He fell against Linares, who is not known for being a great puncher. Garcia has punch and speed, and I think this is what leads him to find the places to land punches, make the decisions and make the right adjustments when needed.
No. 3: Who has better focus, conditioning and stamina?
Garcia, without a doubt. He only threw the entire course once, in a 10-round fight, and this will be his third 12-round fight. The first two did not come out of the first round. Campbell, on the other hand, fades in the second half of the fighting. That’s his MO, especially in the big moments. He doesn’t seem to have the conditioning and focus to do 12 tough rounds.
No. 4: Who is always there? Who lives the sport?
I have to go back to go with Garcia. He may be wrong about Campbell and underestimated how much he lives and dies with boxing. But I can tell you this: Garcia is always in shape. I saw him not long ago in San Diego. He looked slim, he looked smart, and he seemed focused. Even as someone taller built than many of the other guys in the division, it looks like he’s not going to have a hard time gaining weight. He’s always getting ready, always at the gym. Live and breathe sports.
No. 5: Who has the best coach?
Nothing against Shane McGuigan and the work he does with Campbell, but Eddy Reynoso is a great coach. He has Canelo Álvarez, which tells you a lot about his reputation and what he thinks of García to work with him too. Think of Garcia’s heart. Consider Garcia’s abilities. The timing of his shots. That left hook of his own that the boys don’t see coming. He’s got all the tools necessary to win this fight, and Reynoso is hitting them all.
Prediction: Garcia has more to prove. This is Garcia’s moment. Garcia should win this fight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he catches Campbell and knocks him out. I think it would be the center of the fight, the sixth or seventh round. He will catch Campbell, hurt him and kill him.
The numbers
Credit to ESPN stats and information
5-0, 4 KO’s: Garcia’s record since moving from junior lightweight to lightweight.
2:58: Total fighting time for Garcia in his last two matches, a few KO’s in the first round against Francisco Fonseca and Romero Duno.
7.8 million: Total number of followers on Instagram for @kingryan. In boxers, Garcia is in the top four, behind three of the biggest names in the sport: Floyd Mayweather (24.4 million), Mike Tyson (14.3 million) and Anthony Joshua (11.9 million). Garcia recently defeated Canelo Álvarez (7.5 million).
0: Number of times Campbell has been eliminated. He was knocked out four times in his career and lost three decision losses, but Campbell has never been eliminated.
33.5: The average number of jabs per round that Campbell rolls, the seventh highest of all active fighters, according to data from CompuBox.
0:32
The lightweight world champion gave a taste of his boxing skills in a video posted on social media.
The bets
Thanks to Caesars Sportsbook or William Hill, see you Friday morning
Ryan García: -400
Luke Campbell: +310
Garcia by KO / TKO / DQ: +110
Garcia by decision: +240
Campbell by KO / TKO / DQ: +500
Campbell by decision: +600
The fight will run to the end: Yes +130 | No -175
Title defense for the Alvarado twins
Only two pairs of siblings currently have world titles. Most could name the Charlo twins: Jermell, the IBF / WBA / WBC Junior Middleweight World Champion, and Jermall, the WBC Middleweight World Champion. However, most would struggle to name the other pair.
They are twins again, although it might be understandable if you don’t know Nicaraguan Felix and René Alvarado.
Felix (35-2, 30 KOs) is the IBF Junior Flyweight World Champion (108 pounds) and has a streak of 17 wins dating back to his two professional defeats, which came in consecutive title challenges. Even though they’re twins, René (32-8, 21 KOs) fights junior lightweight (130lb), a staggering 22lb difference. René wowed the boxing world with a dominant win in a rematch against Andrew Cancio in November 2019, and went KO in the seventh round when the referee stopped the fight for a cut on Cancio’s left eye after a legal hit in the third round.
René’s eight-fight win streak, including winning the WBA junior lightweight “regular” title, is all the more impressive given that René lost six fights in a span of 10 fights from 2014 to 2017, though the majority against stiff competition, including their first fight. against Cancio and a decision loss against Yuriorkis Gamboa.
On the Garcia-Campbell undercard, both fighters risk their titles. Felix defends against DeeJay Kriel (16-1-1, 8 KO’s), who is unbeaten in 17 fights (almost exclusively in his native South Africa) since losing his professional debut. René takes on Roger Gutiérrez (24-3-1, 20 KO’s) in a rematch of a 2017 fight won by René.
The complete map:
• Championship fight: Ryan Garcia vs. Luke Campbell, 12 rounds, for vacant interim WBC lightweight title
• Championship fight: René Alvarado vs. Roger Gutiérrez, 12 rounds, for WBA Junior Lightweight “regular” title
• Championship fight: Felix Alvarado vs. DeeJay Kriel, 12 rounds, for Alvarado’s IBF June Flyweight Title
• Raúl Curiel vs. Ramses Agaton, 10 rounds, welter
• Franchon Crews-Dezurn vs. Ashleigh Curry, 8 rounds, super mediano
• Alex Rincón vs. Sergio Lucio González, 6 rounds, junior middleweight
• Sean Garcia vs. René Márquez, 4 laps, lightweight
• Asa Stevens vs. Francisco Bonilla, 4 rounds, gallo
• Tristan Kalkreuth vs. Jorge Armando Martínez, 4 rounds, cruiser
Tim Fiorvanti contributed to this report.