Update on Covid vaccine: US will fall short of target of 20 million doses by year end

Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui / Bloomberg

The US only vaccinates an average of 200,000 people a day against Covid-19, and many states have only used a small percentage of shipments shipped to them this month.

Data collected from states and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services shows that while Operation Warp Speed ​​has distributed millions of doses, some states have been slow to get them into people’s arms. According to an analysis by Bloomberg News, the country will almost certainly fall short of the Trump administration’s target of 20 million vaccinations by the end of the year.

The CDC’s latest count, as of Monday, showed that despite the distribution of 11.45 million doses from Moderna Inc. and from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, only 2.13 million people had received an injection. That represents about 20% of the early allocations. Oregon used only 15.3% of its stock, Ohio 14.3% and Maryland 10.9%.

Officials blame a delicate vaccine with complex storage requirements, uncertainty over dose dispensing and pressure on local health authorities already facing historic challenges.

“We would like to get a better absorption,” said Steve Kelso, a spokesman for the Kent County Health Department in Michigan, where the state has used 18.5% of his doses. “We could put more needles in our arms.”

How many of their allocations do states use?

Analysis shows variations in how quickly states act through vaccination

Source: State dashboards and public comments, US government data

More than 330,000 Americans have died from the pandemic, and tens of thousands more are expected to die in the coming months, making the vaccine rollout all the more critical. But Moncef Slaoui, chief science adviser to Operation Warp Speed, said last week that the goal of vaccinating 20 million people by the end of the year was unlikely to be met.

In recent weeks, countries around the world have launched vaccination campaigns in a global race to end the pandemic. Some far exceed the US: Israel, whose size and population is comparable to that of New Jersey, shot an average of 60,000 people a day in the first week. If the US moved at the same speed, it would be doing 2.2 million daily inoculations – 10 times the current rate.

A Health and Human Services Department spokesman said on Tuesday that the reported numbers do not reflect the latest situation.

“We are closely following the data reported from the jurisdictions on vaccine administration, and we are encouraged by the work they have done so far over the holidays,” said Michael Pratt. “There is an expected delay between shots fired in the arms and the data being reported.”

President Donald Trump reiterated in a tweet Tuesday evening that “it is up to the United States to distribute the vaccines.”

But President-elect Joe Biden said in a previous speech that “the attempt to distribute the vaccine is not working properly” and that he would “move heaven and earth to get us going in the right direction.”

Biden said his administration would make 100 million shots in its first 100 days if Congress provided funding. “If it continues to move as it is now, it will take years, not months, to vaccinate the American people,” he said.

Michigan’s mud

Bloomberg News analyzed the first three state allocations, including two weeks of Pfizer recordings and one of Modernas. In some cases, the totals allocated are higher than what states say they have received. The number of doses sent matches what the CDC says it has been distributed, allowing for consistent comparisons by state.

Michigan used less than 1 in 5 of the 455,900 doses allocated through December 21, according to Bloomberg’s analysis.

“The lack of certainty about vaccine allocation, the timing of those allocations’ arrivals and the process of planning thousands of workers for vaccination have all made it challenging,” said John Karasinski, Michigan Health & Health spokesman Hospital Association.

Kent County, which includes Grand Rapids, formed a group of health departments, hospitals and pharmacies with the goal of vaccinating about 2,200 people in the first phase, which targets health professionals. Only 575 vaccinations have been done so far.

Kelso, the spokesperson, said some workers don’t want to deprive a real frontline worker of a vaccine. The holidays can slow things down. And some people are still skittish about safety, even some health department employees.

“A lot of people don’t want to be the first kid on the block,” Kelso said.

Other groups are more successful. Sparrow Health System has vaccinated about a quarter of its workforce, pharmacy director Todd Belding said in an interview. Michigan’s central hospital system administers about 2,000 doses per week, about the same as the state’s allocation, he said.

The staged rollout is slower than if the shots were available to everyone, like the flu vaccine. Some delay is inherent in the design: hospitals do not want to vaccinate entire departments at once, in case side effects force employees to leave. But Sparrow is also coordinating with officials to target populations such as prison medical personnel and independent caregivers. Identifying and reaching such groups takes time, a challenge that will remain as vaccines trickle to grocers and teachers.

“That prioritization has added a certain amount of complexity,” Belding said.

Other states are slowing down. As of Dec. 28, Maryland had processed only 10.9% of its 191,075 doses from the first three weekly allocations, according to Bloomberg’s analysis.

In Montgomery County, Health Chief Travis Gayles said he is preparing for obstacles such as staff shortages. Years of budget cuts have limited the ability of municipalities to build effective virus responses from the start – at one point, Montgomery counted virus cases by fax – and those cuts can also hinder the distribution of vaccines.

“With Covid at the moment, it certainly sheds a bright light on the impact of those budget decisions,” said Gayles.

In New York, officials are looking at vaccination sites and applying “light pressure to pick it up,” said Larry Schwartz, a member of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Covid-19 Task Force. Part of the state’s allocation goes to pharmacies the federal government needs to vaccinate nursing home residents and staff, and it may have taken their time to prepare, Schwartz said.

“Like anything that’s brand new, there is always a little start-up period,” he said.

Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, said dependence on the Trump administration has paralyzed the response. The Warp Speed ​​program admirably managed to help develop and distribute a vaccine, he said, “but at that point it hits a roadblock.”

“Let’s set up field hospitals and tents everywhere and let the National Guard do this,” Jha said in a telephone interview. “That last mile has yielded very little investment. I think this is going to be a huge problem. ”

Private institutions are struggling, even those that perform relatively well. In Virginia, which has used a total of about 15% of its early allocation, Sentara Healthcare has given about 60% of its doses, said Jordan Asher, chief physician executive of the 12-hospital system. The internal goal was to get that out in three weeks, and Asher said Sentara was slightly ahead of schedule.