In Wuhan, nearly half a million people may have had Covid-19, studies show. That is almost 10 times the official figure

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The study used a sample of 34,000 people in the general population in Wuhan – the original epicenter of the pandemic – and other cities in Hubei province, as well as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Liaoning provinces to estimate contamination rates of COVID-19.

The researchers found an antibody prevalence of 4.43% to Covid-19 among residents of Wuhan, a metropolis of 11 million people. Wuhan had reported a total of 50,354 confirmed cases of Covid-19 on Sunday, according to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

The study was designed to estimate the extent of previous infections in a population by testing blood serum samples from a pool of people for coronavirus antibodies. His findings are not considered definitive statistics of how many people have been exposed to the virus in any particular area.

The Chinese CDC said the study was conducted a month after China recorded “the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic.” Prevalence outside of Wuhan is significantly lower, the study found. In other cities in Hubei, only 0.44% of the residents surveyed were found to have antibodies against the coronavirus.

Outside the province, antibodies were found in only two of the more than 12,000 residents surveyed.

The results of the investigation were revealed Monday in a Chinese CDC social media post. It did not mention whether the research has been published in scientific journals.

Underreported coronavirus infections

Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the study points to a problem of underreporting of infections during the height of the Wuhan outbreak, due in part to the chaos at the time and not recording of asymptomatic cases in the official census of confirmed cases.

In January and February, patients with a fever flooded Wuhan hospitals, which lacked the manpower, test kits, and medical resources to diagnose and treat them. Instead, many were told to go home and isolate themselves – some eventually infecting other family members, while others died at home without being recorded in the Covid-19 death toll.

Under-reporting is a problem facing health authorities in many countries, often due to a lack of capacity and resources. Antibody studies conducted by researchers in other parts of the world also show that the coronavirus was much more common than official figures suggest.

For example, a study sponsored by the New York State Department of Health found that at the end of March, one in seven New York adults had Covid-19 – about 10 times higher than the official bill. In August, another study found antibodies against coronavirus in more than 27% of the 1.5 million New York City residents tested.
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But in China, there’s also the issue of transparency, as officials have provided the public with more optimistic data than they had access to internally.

Since February 12, Hubei health authorities have begun to include “clinically diagnosed cases” in the count of confirmed infections. On that day, approximately 13,000 previously undisclosed “clinically diagnosed cases” in the county were added to new confirmed infections, resulting in a nine-fold increase in the number of daily cases from the previous day.
Leaked documents from the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention previously presented to CNN by a whistleblower showed prior to that day that authorities had internally reported “clinically diagnosed cases” but did not disclose them to the public. Hubei authorities also publicly reported a lower number of confirmed cases and deaths on February 10 and March 7 than were recorded internally, the documents showed.
Authorities have also cracked down on citizen journalists reporting the harsh realities of overcrowded hospitals in Wuhan. On Monday, Zhang Zhan, a former attorney who documented the outbreak at its peak in Wuhan, was sentenced to four years in prison for “picking up arguments and provoking trouble.” Two other independent journalists – Li Zehua and Fang Bin – were also detained following their coverage of the outbreak.

Effective containment in Wuhan

The study highlights a huge contrast between coronavirus antibody prevalence rates inside and outside Wuhan.

Huang said the significantly lower rates in other Chinese cities suggest that “Chinese containment efforts were indeed swift and effective, especially compared to cities like New York.”

In an unprecedented effort to contain the rapidly spreading virus, Wuhan was cut off from the outside world on January 23, canceling all flights, trains and buses and blocking access to the highway.

In the city, the government imposed a draconian lockdown. For more than two months, public transport in Wuhan was suspended, businesses were shut down, and millions of residents were locked up in their homes and communities – not even allowed to go out to run errands.
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However, the 76-day lockdown came at a huge cost to residents, especially those needing to go to hospital, as all public transport had been shut down and there were not enough taxis available for patients.

Nevertheless, the Chinese government has announced that the sweeping measures have enabled the country to turn a corner in the fight against the outbreak.

The Chinese CDC, meanwhile, also highlighted China’s victory by containing the virus when releasing the results of the antibody study on Monday.

“The results of the study show that the population of our country has a low infection rate. It indicates that China has managed to control the epidemic with Wuhan as the main battlefield, and effectively control the widespread spread of the epidemic. has, “the agency said. .

CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh contributed to this story.

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