France and Germany are once again taking the reins as Britain leaves the EU economic job

Instead, as the UK prepares to leave the EU’s economic job on January 1, the EU has regained confidence, aided in part by a revived Franco-German partnership and encouraged by the expected arrival of the government- Biden in Washington. Meanwhile, Paris, now the dominant player in the bloc’s foreign policy, is fueling debate on everything from relations with Washington and Moscow to expanding the EU’s military capabilities.

Last week’s Brexit deal is due to be approved by EU governments on Tuesday and by the UK parliament on Wednesday, so that it can provisionally enter into force on Friday. The European Parliament will consider the 1,246-page deal, first published on Saturday, in the new year. Major EU lawmakers from the bloc’s largest parties have already welcomed the deal.

During several years of bitter Brexit talks, many feared that the failure of the EU and the UK to reach an agreement on their future relationship could poison the bilateral ties and even the UK’s still significant contributions to the European Union. would threaten security – from the Baltic states to the anti-terrorism campaign in the Sahel of Africa.

Britain’s influence on the continent, long a useful channel for Washington to influence EU plans for trade, tax and foreign policy priorities, has been greatly diminished. Thursday’s agreement between Britain and the EU on future economic, trade and security ties should avoid a permanent rift between America’s European allies.

The repeated political crises in Britain since the referendum have, opinion polls show, lifted support for EU membership elsewhere. Many anti-EU populist champions are now calling for the bloc to be reformed rather than stopped.

This year, the EU agreed to a massive recovery fund to help the bloc come out of its coronavirus slump – an agreement that was unimaginable a few years ago. With a Brexit deal in, some officials believe the EU has turned a corner.

“We have shown that when we are under real pressure, we can get things done,” Michael Clauss, Germany’s ambassador to the EU, said in December. “So we’ve taken on the challenges and that’s why we all feel, psychologically too, that we’re in a stronger position now.”

Central to the eurozone’s revival is the Franco-German partnership, which has gained momentum with the departure of the only EU member state that was economically and strategically alike.

Just a year ago, France and Germany were at odds with many of Europe’s greatest challenges.

Germany had watered down most of French President Emmanuel Macron’s sweeping proposals to reform the eurozone, France blocked EU expansion, German Chancellor Angela Merkel harked back to Mr Macron’s criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while Berlin was wary of Paris’s efforts to thaw ties with Russia.

That changed this spring.

Ms Merkel disregarded a decade of opposition to the joint issuance of debt and in May supported a proposal to the European Commission, the EU’s executive, to issue debt to finance a rescue package worth hundreds of billions of euros. Member States would hand out to help them during the pandemic.

Two months later, the EU agreed on a € 750 billion program, which equates to $ 920 billion.

Had the UK still been a member of the EU, the bloc might have removed Britain from the fund. Still, British lawmakers would have been obliged to give the EU executive new tax powers, something they would not have liked to do.

With the departure of Great Britain, France, also a nuclear and vetoing member of the UN Security Council, is one of the few European countries with a global military presence and willingness to deploy it.

Mr Macron has pushed a program of strategic autonomy, including building military capabilities to allow the EU to operate independently of major powers such as China and the U.S. With Berlin, it seeks to strengthen the EU’s defense sector and provide stronger protection for critical industries.

France has fought in a growing conflict between the EU and Turkey over natural gas resources and Ankara’s military actions in its vicinity. Mr Macron has continued to reach Moscow despite the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Caution is needed in Mr Macron’s policies in some parts of the bloc, especially steps that undermine NATO. But without Britain, those concerns are out of the question.

“As for European defense, it comes out in a very French way,” said Ian Bond, foreign policy director at the Center for European Reform. “Strategic autonomy would not have gone as far if the British had still sat at the table.”

For Washington, this could pose challenges, even if EU leaders say they would like to work with President-elect Joe Biden. For years, the UK had blocked EU efforts that it feared undermined or duplicated NATO’s work. Britain has also become a much tougher critic of China and would likely have spurred the EU to coordinate closely with the US on the challenges Beijing poses.

Instead, the EU occupies a middle position. Brussels has recently started a formal dialogue with the US on China. Still, under pressure from Berlin, the EU is currently close to finalizing a comprehensive investment deal with Beijing, which is provoking warnings from Mr Biden’s team.

Gnawing at the EU’s renewed confidence are doubts about the strength and endurance of the revived Franco-German partnership.

Paris and Berlin still disagree on euro-zone reforms, a weakness that officials fear could make them vulnerable to a new financial or banking crisis in the single-currency zone. The great powers of the EU have failed to end disagreements in migration policy or to heal a toxic divide between East and West over the application of the rule of law and democratic freedoms.

Next year, Ms. Merkel, chancellor for a decade and a half, will retire. Some see a new period of uncertainty, even as German diplomats insist that Berlin’s European policy will not change much.

“The underlying conflicts in the EU have not disappeared,” said Fabian Zuleeg, CEO of the Brussels-based European Policy Center. “Removing one actor… could mean that there is one less source of conflict. It does not mean that we are able to make leaps in integration. “

Write to Laurence Norman at [email protected]