SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts face the unknown yet again as another big holiday approaches during the COVID-19 pandemic.
That’s because vacations have led to spikes in new COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic. That was true again after Thanksgiving in Utah, but it was nowhere near the bump that public health officials feared.
Health experts are hoping for a similar outcome after Christmas and New Year close the major holidays.
“We are definitely going in the right direction with a lower number, but our major obstacle now coming is the Christmas / New Year holidays” and its impact on the COVID-19 situation, Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, an infectious disease said. Intermountain Healthcare doctor on Wednesday during a virtual question and answer session.
“Fingers crossed that Utah is coming together as a community like we did during Thanksgiving,” he added. “We didn’t see that big increase we expected because Utahns took this seriously. I hope we will see the same at Christmas. ‘
The COVID-19 situation in Utah on the way to Christmas, New Year
When health officials said the post-Thanksgiving spike wasn’t as bad as feared, it’s because new cases haven’t pushed the state’s seven-day running average of new cases to unprecedented levels. There were still new cases and hospitalizations as a result of Thanksgiving gatherings.
To date, the seven-day moving average of cases in Utah peaked at 3,364.7 cases per day on Nov. 22 – four days before Thanksgiving. The average fell to 2,296.9 cases per day on November 30, then climbed back to 3,124.6 new cases per day on December 6, which is within the post-holiday incubation period. It has fallen steadily ever since. Utah’s seven-day moving average is 2,419.3 cases per day, as of Wednesday’s health department update.
The decline is a welcome sight, but because of the extensive data, health experts are cautious about their optimism. For example, testing is still low compared to pre-Thanksgiving levels, and the test positivity rate remains at 23.7% through December 17. The latter is a sign that COVID-19 is likely to be underreported in the state.
At the same time, hospitals are still full of rates that exceed state targets. The total number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 is 560. Intensive care unit use was 92% in referral hospitals in Utah and 90% statewide as of Wednesday, according to the state health department. The state alert threshold for ICUs is 72% and the target use threshold is 85%. It is a situation that can only improve if the number of new cases continues to decrease.
“Yes, our number of cases has gone down – a very encouraging sign – and we have some other indicators to show that we really have reduced community transmission … but our test volumes are not as high as they could be and our test rate is high, which means we are likely to miss many active cases that are not being tested, “said Stenehjem.
“What we ideally would have seen is that our (COVID-19) numbers are very low before the holidays and the New Year, which would reduce any risk of transmission between families coming together. But we still have very fast transfer rates,” even though the (new case) numbers have gone down, ”he added.
Stenehjem said he expects testing for COVID-19 to rise again in early 2021 as a result of Utah’s rapid early-student program testing and advancement of testing options such as home testing kits.
What is recommended to stay safe during the holidays
Many of the public health recommendations for Christmas and New Year are similar to Thanksgiving recommendations. In reviewing the COVID-19 data on post-Thanksgiving cases in Utah, Stenehjem said he believed it showed that many people took the advice seriously and that the post-holiday spike wasn’t as bad as feared.
“I hope this will happen again tomorrow on Christmas Eve and the day after tomorrow on Christmas Day, as well as on New Years Day,” he said.
Therefore, the way meetings are handled is perhaps the single biggest factor in determining whether the post-Christmas and New Year’s COVID-19 spikes in Utah are also not as severe as feared.
Stenehjem said again that the best advice would be Utahns avoid meetings between different households, including extended families.
If Utahns choose to have multi-household gatherings, it is encouraged that those gatherings are small and allow for risky contacts. Just because a meeting doesn’t include people who are considered at high risk for serious COVID-19 infection, doesn’t mean that participants won’t interact with a high-risk person in the time after that meeting.
“If you choose to meet, you are very careful in terms of who you meet with, in terms of small numbers, and don’t meet with people who are at high risk or who have been exposed to people at high risk , “Said Stenehjem. “Really think about who you are meeting with. What is their risk profile? What is the risk for them or for you if you become infected? And who do they go home to? And who can they possibly infect if they get infected at your meeting?” touch? ? “
Stenehjem added that hospitals are not immune to breaking traditions during the holiday season. Holiday parties, for example, are a staple for doctors and nurses where he works, but those have been dropped this year.
“We can’t do that safely right now,” he said, adding that they mixed it up with an ugly Christmas sweater contest to lighten the mood during a difficult time for hospital workers.
Meanwhile, it is clear that there is still a significant risk of COVID-19 spreading at meetings. According to the Georgia Tech COVID-19 Event Risk Management Tool, as of Wednesday, most Utah counties had a 20-30% chance of exposure to COVID-19 at a meeting of at least 10 people. The event risk tool was created to estimate the likelihood that a person would come into contact with at least one other person with COVID-19 at a meeting based on the county population, COVID-19 case count data, and bill taking into account underreporting.
The risk in the densely populated Wasatch Front counties (Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber) ranged from 30% in Salt Lake County to 36% in Utah County. Statewide, Daggett County had the lowest risk at less than 1%; Millard County had the highest risk at 46% according to the model.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have once again made holiday recommendations for all December holidays leading up to New Year’s Eve. The CDC’s recommendations include:
- Conduct religious ceremonies as best you can
- Decorate a holiday scene to share the holiday spirit from home. For family photos it is recommended to stay at home as well.
- Drive or walk past Christmas decorations to view them ‘from a safe distance’
- Throw holiday parties online rather than in person. People can share a vacation playlist that visitors can listen to together, or even open gifts together online.
- Have a snowman or snow angel competition with neighbors or friends in the community, as long as every household outside is at least six feet apart.
- Get in touch with local community organizations and find out how you can give back. Officials advise people to ask about safety precautions in advance or see if there are ways to volunteer through ‘virtual opportunities’.
- Schedule “virtual visits” to the North Pole or visit Santa at least six feet apart while wearing a mask.
- If you are hosting a personal party, try to limit the number of guests and have a “small outdoor party” with family and friends living in the same community. It is recommended that people wear masks both indoors and outdoors and that shouting and singing are limited for parties or gatherings involving several households.
The full list of the agency’s recommendations on COVID-19 can be found here.
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Carter Williams