8 things you need to know about Sunday’s NJ Nor’easter

3.) Where’s the snow bullseye?

The keys to success for this forecast are:
1.) Who gets a winter mix or downright rain, and how long does it last?
2.) Who will see the toughest snow tires?

My latest snow map (above) is my estimate of how those two factors will play out.

—The Sweet Spot … It appears that the NJ Turnpike Corridor through the interior of southern and central New Jersey will see the heaviest snowfall and 4 to 6+ inches of snow accumulation. (Behind the scenes, I’ve debated labeling this area 4-8 “ or even a street ~ 6 “. I wouldn’t rule out 20cm of snow in some spots – there are even outlier scenarios as high as 10 “or 12” – but I think the mixing problem and uncertainty about tire formation make 6 “a much more likely estimate for widely distributed snowfall.)

—Too warm on the coast … While our initial snow forecasts seemed hopeful to snow lovers along the Jersey Shore, it’s now pretty clear that rain and winter mix will eventually crush those winter dreams. I expect the green area of ​​the map to see mostly rain and / or muddy mix from the start to about Sunday afternoon, missing most of the storm’s “load”. There is a chance of all snow in the afternoon, with limited accumulation possible given the light snowfall intensity and wet ground at the time.

—North Jersey too far … The far north of New Jersey will be spared the worst coastal storm. You will still see some snow, on the order of 2 to 4 inches. But the heaviest snow should stay in the south – no guarantee, but that’s what the model consensus points to.

4.) What about the wobble factor?

No prediction is complete without some degree of confidence, an explanation of how “locked up” the predicted scenario is.

In this case, I would say confidence is high that we will see moderate to heavy snow build-up in much of New Jersey. The storm would have to wobble a lot to make it a complete miss.

Trust is medium those snow totals will reflect the map I drew above. If heavy mesoscale snow tires set up 25 miles in either direction, that will clearly affect who sees the most snow. If the temperatures (on the surface or in elevation) deviate only a few degrees from expectations, we could see more (or less) mixing along coastal areas.

So the prediction is certainly clearer than it had been. And the fact remains that widespread snow of 15 cm will always have significant winter consequences. But let’s also remember that this forecast is still very sensitive to the exact track of the storm, which is indeed still subject to wobble.

5.) What warnings and advice have been issued?

The National Weather Service has one Winter storm warning for the following times and provinces:
—Sunday 4:00 am to Sunday 7:00 pm … in northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, western counties of Monmouth, Morris, Salem and Somerset.
—Sunday 6am to Sunday 9pm … Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Eastern Passaic and Union districts.

A less serious, less urgent, less dangerous Winter weather advice is placed for:
—Sunday 4am to Sunday 7pm … Atlantic Ocean, southeastern Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, coastal Monmouth counties, Ocean, Sussex and Warren.
-6 pm Sunday to 9 pm Sunday … western Passaic County.

6.) Any wind or coastal flooding?

No.

Wind gusts, in particular, can approach nearly 30 mph after the storm like arctic air rushing in from the northwest.

The storm will move so fast that it will have no opportunity to churn our ocean. A storm surge of several centimeters should not cause problems with coastal flooding. (Especially since our astronomical tide is currently relatively low, due to a waning crescent moon.)

7.) What does it boil down to?

It’s going to snow. It’s a fast moving storm system, in and out in about 12 hours. Expect wintry weather from early Sunday morning to part of the afternoon. That snow will remain heavy for a while, away from the coast. Definitely scoopable for most of the state. Probably plowable.

Traveling will be difficult during the height of the storm, due to poor visibility and traction. Hopefully, against Monday morning’s commute, crews will have enough time to clear the snow. (Keep in mind that plowing will take much longer in areas where there is already 12 inches of snow on the ground from Monday’s storm.)

I suspect affected schools are more likely to have a delayed opening (or virtual learning day), if anything, rather than an outright “snow day” shutdown. (Sorry kiddies.) For all decision makers reading this, make that call as last-minute as possible, based on your own local circumstances and policies on Sunday evening and / or Monday morning.

8.) What’s next?

For the third weekend in a row, I enter the weather center for the weekend. (‘This is the season!) I look forward to bringing you the latest forecast before and during this winter storm on the 14 stations that make up the Townsquare New Jersey Weather Network.