“The risk today runs from Iowa to the Gulf Coast. Storms in the north have a higher risk of wind damage, and storms further south will have a greater likelihood of tornadoes. All will have dangerous lightning and even possible flooding,” CNN said. meteorologist Chad Myers.
The Storm Forecast Center has issued a level 3 out of 5, “increased risk” warning for severe weather through tonight for northern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, west-central Mississippi, and southwestern Tennessee. This level of risk means “numerous severe storms (are) possible,” the center said.
The environmental factors could “lead to rapid growth in a broken band of storms and embedded supercells as the afternoon progresses,” said the National Weather Service in Little Rock. These kinds of thunderstorms – super cells – are best known for producing tornadoes, but not all.
Low pressure over the Central Plains will contain a cold front draped to the south and east. This cold front will be the main instigator for storms as it moves east.
By early afternoon, a series of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop further near this front, from eastern Kansas to northeast Texas. The Storm Forecast Center has this region at a level 1 of 5 severe storm risk.
The mid and late afternoon become more active and dangerous. That series of storms will provide a better environment for tornadoes and other types of severe weather, including hail and high winds. These storms are likely to stretch from Missouri through East Texas and North Louisiana.
Wednesday night, the storms will sweep through the lower Mississippi River area, still holding the potential for all forms of severe weather. Violent storms could potentially be as far north as Iowa and as far south as the coasts of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.
Storms will work eastward until early Thursday toward the southeast, but much of the serious weather threat should abate by then.
Flash floods are also a concern, with widespread rainfall expected of 1 to 2 inches, but localized amounts can be closer to 2 to 4 inches.
“Soil saturation and power flows have dropped significantly from where they were a week ago, but nonetheless are still looking at above average soil saturation,” the Weather Prediction Center said of current conditions in parts of Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi, where flooding is possible. . from the storms to tonight.
Some of these storms, especially on the south side of the line across parts of Arkansas and Kansas, could be training. Due to storms that present themselves, they move over the same locations for an extended period of time, increasing the risk of flooding.
Strong storms remain in the forecast until the end of this week. The forecast center warns of isolated severe storms that could be possible Thursday from central Tennessee through southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle.
A new storm system will then move into the country, and another serious weather threat in the south could be possible from Friday to Saturday.
These storms can trigger tornadoes, along with damaging winds and hail, but forecast remains uncertain as to timing and which areas are most at risk from these storms.