Space stations, orbiting the Earth 16 times a day, 400 kilometers high, are among mankind’s most impressive achievements. The International Space Station (ISS) is a partnership between NASA and Russia’s Roscosmos, with contributions from the US from Canada, Japan, Europe and other countries. However, the future is far from clear and depends on the decisions that will be made this year.
About 75 percent of the cost of the ISS is borne by the US at an annual cost of $ 3 billion to 4 billion. Russia launched the first components of ISS in 1998 and ISS was fully operational in 2010. The plan was for the ISS to last 15 to 20 years, by which time it would be replaced. It wouldn’t be.
The ISS cost more than $ 150 billion, five times the combined budgets of NASA and Roscosmos, so replacing it would be a huge undertaking, likely stifling funding for Earth observation, human visits to the Moon or Mars, or deep space exploration . The Trump administration’s “Artemis” response was to transfer space stations in orbit from the government to the private sector and instead focus government spending on a space station in orbit and a human. moon landing. Now that several countries have already agreed to invest in the US lunar space station, it is difficult to see how these countries would invest in a $ 100 billion replacement ISS as well. So unless the Artemis program is delayed, the financial burden of a new ISS would fall on the US
Extending the life of the ISS has been made easier by the design of the parts, which makes it easier to remove worn parts, such as solar panels. Accordingly, NASA, Roscosmos and the international partners agreed to run it until 2028 (8 to 10 years longer than its lifespan) and maybe 2030.
The ISS is already 20 years old, and – at this age – we should be prepared for surprises: When a slow air leak was discovered, an astronaut first stuck it with his finger and then taped it down. It’s not the only time they’ve kept air in the station with tape, and it’s unlikely to be the last outage before 2030, not to mention the risk of debris collisions. If there is to be a comparable replacement for the ISS in 2030, the first works should start in 2021. If a replacement is not worked on in 2021, it is less likely that a similar station will be in use in 2028/30. But there’s more.
The ISS is on the verge of a huge publicity boost: parts of two major films will be shot there this year. Universal Studios and NASA announced that a $ 200 million Tom Cruise thriller would be filmed partially on the ISS, and Russia’s Channel One and Roscosmos announced they would be filming one too. Millions of people could soon be in awe of glamorous scenes on board the ISS.
Although Roscosmos agreed to continue the ISS until 2028/30, it indicated that if the US closed the US ISS segments, Russia would separate the Russian segments and use them as a standalone or collaborative Russian space station. No one in Russia has forgotten that the first space stations were Russian or that the Mir Space Station was active 14 years before the ISS. The possibility of a space station with a Russian partner remains.
Strong opposition from US defense interests has prevented US-China space cooperation, leading to a 2011 law effectively banning it. Not surprisingly, China has pursued a space program with no involvement with the ISS. This includes satellites, lunar and planetary missions, and, starting in 2011, China’s own space stations, Tiangong 1 and 2. In 2021, China will begin construction of Tiangong 3, a multi-module station that is starting to resemble the ISS. It should be operational in 2022, include European and other astronauts, and remain operational long after the ISS.
Assuming the US does not build an ISS replacement, America’s main strategy continues to replace the ISS with private space stations. Several US companies have already started work, although most use the ISS as a base.
The leading US company building its own station is privately-owned Axiom Space, which outsources launches to companies like Space X and modular construction to Thales Alenia Corp. ‘Axiom Station’ will be a space station with three modules, which was initially connected to the ISS earlier. divorce in the late 2020’s. Axiom’s plan is to use one module for operations, another for experimentation / manufacturing, and the third as a luxury resort. Last year, NASA awarded Axiom $ 140 million to help it build its first module. Axiom will host Universal Studios and Tom Cruise this year and send 3 space tourists, who paid $ 55 million each, to the ISS for a week in 2022.
Other companies are further behind, including Sierra Nevada Corp., Nano Racks, and Bigelow.
One of the most significant recent developments in US space policy was the formation of the US Space Force (USSF). One of its primary goals is to protect US spacecraft, and it is hard to imagine that the USSF leadership would not consider a military space station. Although NASA has long partnered with the military and although the US military is one of the largest owners of satellites, no manned US military space station has been proposed since the 1960s.
Last year, the Defense Innovation Unit awarded Sierra Nevada a contract to build an unmanned Orbital Outpost that could accommodate a military crew. The company would use its planned cargo vehicle as a platform from which to build a military outpost. The cargo vehicle’s maiden flight to the ISS, linked to the Sierra Nevada space plane, is scheduled for 2021. This will, of course, lay the foundation for converting the vehicle into a military space station.
So this year, the construction of a new Chinese space station and an American industrial space station will begin; the Pentagon will chase its first space station and – perhaps – we will know more about a future Russian space station. More importantly, Biden’s administration has decided whether there will be a replacement for the ISS, especially since – given the long lead times – no decision is a decision in 2021.
Roger Cochetti provides advisory and advisory services in Washington, DC. He was a senior executive at Communications Satellite Corporation (COMSAT) from 1981 to 1994. He also led public Internet policy for IBM from 1994 to 2000 and later served as Senior Vice President & Chief Policy Officer for VeriSign and Group Policy Director for CompTIA. He served on the State Department’s Advisory Committee on International Communications and Information Policy during the Bush and Obama administrations, has testified multiple times on Internet policy, and served on advisory committees to the FTC and various UN agencies. He is the author of the Mobile Satellite Communications Handbook.