Oaxaca de Juárez. – The campaigns towards the elections on June 6 they haven’t formally started all over the country and there are already 61 actors politicians killed, 18 of which were candidates for a popular position, according to the Indicator of Political Violence in Mexico drawn up by the specialized consultancy Etellekt.
Ivonne Gallegos Carreño, candidate for the municipal presidency of Ocotlán de Morelos, Oaxaca, murdered last Saturday, is the 18th victim in this election process which began in September 2020. It included a trial under many risk factors that erupted into armed aggression, without any protection.
These crimes were committed at a time prior to the definitive definition of the nominations, considered by the consultancy to be one of the biggest risks, along with the latter part of the campaigns.
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Violence is on the rise
In accordance with Ruben Salazar, specialist in political and risk analysis and director of the Etellekt consultoría, the 2021 election process is already considered the second most violent in history, just below that of 2018, when 48 to strive Y candidates
Salazar identifies four scenarios on which to focus the current election process violence: one desirable, one slow, one critical and one catastrophic.
So far the former has already been exceeded and there is an 80% chance that the murders of applicants and candidates will be between the ages of 30 and 60.
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If the 48 casualties were exceeded in 2018, Mexico would have reached the critical stage.
“The violence at two times: in the period of the definitions of candidatures and already when the clocks
“A pattern of violence is repeated in pre-campaigns or inter-campaigns, when the candidates are still not registered with the electoral bodies,” Salazar clarifies.
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The above, explains the expert, happens because it is when the applicants are most vulnerable, as it only occurs by law protection of candidates with registration not for the pre-candidates.
“The authority’s response is more lax when they kill an applicant than when they are already registered for the election bodies
“The cases remain in obscurity and impunity, and on a few occasions the intellectual author is found,” he adds, citing as an example that of the 18 aspirants murdered in this trial, only one is arrested for one case.
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Higher risk
Of the murdered candidates, 14 were candidates for a municipal presidency and 66% fled the opposition. In addition, 15 originally came from states in the southeast of the country.
According to a count drawn up by THE UNIVERSAL, of the 18 candidates murdered, seven are from Veracruz; four from Guerrero; two from Quintana Roo. Guanajuato, Chihuahua, Chiapas and Jalisco have one respectively. They were joined by the victim from Oaxaca. Of these, 15 were men and three women.
For the specialist, there are other risk factors that can be listed in the murders of those looking for one election position are the presence of drug trafficking, major social and political conflicts, marginalization and offers from the aspirants themselves to the organized crime o la corruption
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It confirms that the protection model proposed by the federal government is based on a misdiagnosis based only on the number of people executed, without taking into account risk factors such as threats and harassment, and therefore it is “impossible to take precautions . protection if it is not known who is at risk ”.
The goal, he argues, should be to identify candidates at risk and approach them to take early action and not just when there is already an imminent risk of losing their lives.
In addition, it emphasizes that the government’s plan is based on one criminalization of the victims, because in a light way it is assured that in most cases organized crime is involved, without taking into account the political motives and the background of the victims. This, he claims, is a return to the governments’ story Felipe Calderon Y Enrique Peña Nieto
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“It is not just murder, it arouses psychological terror in the candidate or candidate, forcing them to renounce or threatening to use more extreme methods of violence, but cases such as threats to identify motives and enforce the associated electoral sanctions are not to prevent political violence from becoming an instrument of electoral competition that determines the results of a competition, ”says the expert.