Sales are a fact in the NFL. Even when the league added two playoff teams to make a 14-team bracket in 2020, five of the 12 teams that made the postseason in 2019 did not make a return trip this season. That’s a group that includes the 49ers, who were the top seed in the NFC and its representatives in Super Bowl LIV, and the Patriots, who had made it to the playoffs in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. The Texans, Vikings and Eagles also failed to make it back in January, with two of those three not even coming particularly close.
Let’s try to project what the 2021 playoff picture might look like by the time we reach the end of next season. Let me start with the obvious: it will be wrong. We don’t know who will coach the Eagles or Texans or if their starting quarterbacks will stick around for another season. By doing this, I predict there is a slim chance that Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz will be traded to one of their more obvious suitors, such as the Dolphins or Jets.
We know the Colts will have a new starting quarterback as Philip Rivers announced his retirement on Wednesday, but Drew Brees’ future with the Saints is still in the air. We don’t even know if fans will be able to cheer in stadiums in September.
I’ll lean on the facts we do know – namely how each team performed in 2020 and what at least 16 games on their schedule will look like in 2021 – to make educated guesses about next season’s playoff field. Where I have made particularly surprising choices, I have tried to provide historical context for teams that have made similar jumps or made similar descents.
Let’s start with the team that is probably the least surprising choice, the defending champions:
Jump to a team:
ATL | BALL | BUF | CHI | CLE
DAL | GB | IND | JAX | KC
LAR | MIA | NE | NO | PIT
SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH